Guide to Q1: Global Growth, Jobs, and the Fed
LPL Financial Research forecasts U.S. economic growth, as measured by real gross domestic product (GDP), to accelerate to 3% in 2014 from the 2% pace of recent years. This marks our first above-consensus annual forecast for GDP in many years. As of mid-December 2013, the Bloomberg-tracked consensus estimate by economists for 2014 was 2.6%. If achieved, the 3% pace of GDP growth in 2014 would be the best performance for the U.S. economy since 2005, when the economy posted 3.4% growth. While a strong growth rate in comparison to the past 10 years, the 3% growth rate would simply equal the average pace of real GDP growth since the end of WWII.
Global GDP growth is also likely to accelerate in 2014. The economists’ consensus forecast expects a pickup from around 3% in 2013 to 3.5% in 2014. Beyond the United States, the major contributors to this growth rate may also enjoy a better pace of growth in 2014:
- Europe will likely eke out a modest gain in GDP after emerging from a double-dip recession in 2013;
- China’s growth should stabilize in the coming year after slowing during the last few years; and
- Japan could record its third consecutive year of GDP growth for the first time since the mid-2000s.
Below, we take a month-by-month look at what could be some of the key milestones for the economic outlook in the first quarter of 2014. Read entire articles…